Florida today – Poll gives McCain lead in Fla. early voting
Democrats are beaming that their party is outperforming the Republicans in early voting, releasing numbers Wednesday that show registrants of their party ahead 54 percent to 30 percent among the 1.4 million voters who have gone to the polls early.
“We’re thrilled at the record turnout so far,” said Democratic Party of Florida spokesman Eric Jotkoff. “It’s a clear indication that Democrats want to elect Barack Obama and Democrats up and down the ballot so that we can start creating good jobs, rebuilding our economy and getting our nation back on track.”
But party breakdowns for turnout aren’t the same as final tallies, and at least one poll offered a different view for the campaign of Republican John McCain.A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll gave McCain a 49-45 lead over Democrat Barack Obama among Floridians who have already voted.
And Republicans continued to show a traditional strength, leading 50 percent to the Democrats’ 30 percent in the 1.2 million absentee ballots already returned.
With the election still a week away, nearly a quarter of the Nevada electorate has already cast ballots, according to the secretary of state.
Through the end of voting Sunday, about 300,000 people had voted early statewide, a turnout of 24.9 percent of the state’s 1.2 million active voters.
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Through Sunday, 55 percent of early voters were Democrats, 29 percent Republicans.
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Exit polling of early voters conducted by a local political consultant suggests a close presidential contest in the Silver State: Democratic nominee Barack Obama had the votes of 50 percent who had voted, while Republican nominee John McCain had 48 percent of the early vote.
RedState is confirming these trends in Nevada – I thought Nevada was supposed to be close?
So if we do a little math, this means 150,000 people have voted Obama, and 148,000 for McCain. But 165,000 of the voters are Democrat, while 87,000 are Republicans. For these results to be valid, at least 13,000 Democrats have to have voted to McCain, and up to 61,000. Assuming that the Independents are splitting 50/50, this gives us about a 37,000 Democrat crossover votes, or 12% of the electorate, assuming 100% support for McCain among Republicans. Put more realistically, the Republicans in Nevada have a 12% advantage in crossover support.
Amusingly, the article quotes Larry Sabato, then uses his prediction for Nevada:
Sabato, whose “Crystal Ball” tracks his election predictions, foresees Nevada going narrowly for Obama.
If that is going to happen, then the Dems need to have at least a 12% turnout advantage over the Republicans. Because if we get a 2004 even turnout between parties, McCain will win Nevada by 12 points, at the current rate. The only way this reserves is if the PUMAs all voted early, and Obama supporters are waiting for Nov. 4th.
Some may not know what a PUMA is since its a new term as of the 2008 DNC. Here is the definition from CitizenSugar Definition:PUMA
PUMA stands for “Party Unity My Ass,” The term originated in the comment section of a pro-Clinton blog, and later became the name of a political action committee protesting Barack Obama’s place as the Democratic nominee. The term later underwent a PC transformation and now officially means “People United Means Action.”
Look Closer
30 October 2008
I know its as cooky as finding 3 6’s in the P&G Moon and Stars vignette
or finding the Virgin Mary in a piece of toast
but its always fun to read between the lines and find something you never knew was there.
